Doug Piper, a member of the Electrify Ashland Now! action team, shares his insights on how to rid our homes of gas furnaces by 2050.
A gas furnace produces more pollution than almost anything else we use — an estimated four to eight tons of carbon emissions per year. That’s equivalent to the emissions of a typical gas burning car! Burning the “natural” gas (methane) that powers the furnace produces a lot of carbon dioxide (CO2), which remains in the air for hundreds of years. And, methane — a “super-pollutant” that traps 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide in the short term — leaks throughout its journey to our equipment, from fracking to our homes. Every time a gas furnace ignites, for instance, it releases a certain amount of unburned fuel.
Despite some progress in switching to more energy efficient appliances, by the end of 2023 there were still about 3,900 gas furnaces in Ashland’s 10,000 residences.
Switching from gas appliances like furnaces to energy efficient ones is crucial if we are to meet our emissions goals. So how do we speed this process along?
Since 2016, the City of Ashland has helped almost 300 residents replace old gas furnaces with heat pumps, with expertise (free home energy audits) and significant rebates (up to $1,200 per heating system). In 2023, 53 furnaces were replaced with high efficiency heat pumps.
This is a good start, but we need to move faster to make meaningful progress towards our zero-emissions goals. At the current rate it will take at least 70 years to replace all of our gas-fueled furnaces! But, as can be seen in the chart below, increasing the replacement rate to 144 per year (about double) could, in theory, eliminate gas furnaces in every single Ashland home by 2050 — 25 years from now. Every single one.
The graph above represents an admittedly simplified scenario based on certain assumptions. It may not be realistic to plan on an abrupt switch away from replacing every failing gas furnace with another. Nevertheless, we believe this model indicates that a rapid transition is possible if the community wants it to happen.
Every new gas furnace installed makes the Path to Net Zero more difficult. It becomes an ongoing source of pollution that will last for another 20 years or so — meaning 800 to 1600 tons of carbon emissions. Here are some ideas for speeding up furnace replacement in Ashland:
- Offer even bigger subsidies. The current city subsidies are generous. But, in fact our city benefits even more from new electric heat pumps due to increased electric revenue. In 2023 Ashland residents paid $8.8 million for gas service. Switching from gas to electric keeps more revenue in our own community, supporting local services and providing local employment rather than sending it to Avista.
- Support electrical prep work. Subsidies could be offered for any electrical upgrades needed to prepare houses before existing gas furnaces need to be replaced. Heat pumps provide both heating and cooling efficiently.
- Offer heat pump subsidies to small landlords. Currently, city subsidies are only available to customers of Ashland Electric. Rental utility bills are often paid by the tenant. Subsidies for small landlords would better align landlord-tenant interests. A state program that does this has proven so effective that a recent round of funding was snapped up in 24 hours. This approach provides years of excellent and efficient service that many cycles of renters can benefit from with better heating and cooling and more stable utility bills.
- Encourage Ashland residents to use federal incentives. More homeowners with tax obligations could use the new IRS 25C tax credit and get $2,000 back on a new heat pump. Doing this soon makes sense especially for those whose gas furnaces are older than 15 years. A furnace has a useful life cycle of 15 to 22 years.
- Provide support for when gas appliances fail, but homeowners aren’t ready to install heat pumps. A supply of small portable heat pumps could be set up as loaners. This would keep residences comfortable during the time it takes to replace a failing furnace or an air conditioner that may require electrical upgrades.
- Add more financial incentives. A low-interest, on-bill financing loan program from Ashland Electric is in the works. When this program comes on line later this year it could be offered to renters as well as to homeowners. About half of Ashlanders rent their homes. Current subsidies, tax credits, and the like do little to help our neighbors who rent.
I hope this report will encourage prompt further action by city policymakers and residents to adopt the Path to Net Zero.
In the meantime, my Electrify Ashland Now colleagues and I are offering free home energy assessments so you can learn more right away. We can answer your questions about your equipment and rebates and tax credits. Start by filling out this simple form. It’ll take you only a few minutes. When we receive your form we’ll reach out to get you started on your Path to Net Zero.